The Ambiguity of Intelligence: When 65% Probability Means Anything But

In 1951, CIA analyst Sherman Kent uncovered a critical flaw in intelligence communication: the subjective interpretation of probability. His report on the likelihood of a Yugoslav invasion highlighted how the phrase 'serious possibility' was understood vastly differently by various stakeholders. This led Kent to categorize intelligence assessments and reveal the widespread inconsistency in how professionals interpret probabilistic language. He argued that ambiguous phrases are often used to avoid responsibility, a problem extending beyond intelligence to legal contexts. The article concludes that standardizing probabilistic language is crucial in a world rife with uncertainty, where misinterpretation poses a greater risk than error itself.