Critique of AI 2027's Superintelligence Prediction Model

The article "AI 2027" predicts the arrival of superintelligent AI by 2027, sparking widespread discussion. Based on the METR report's AI development model and a short story scenario, the authors forecast the near-term achievement of superhuman coding capabilities. However, this critique argues that the core model is deeply flawed, citing over-reliance on a super-exponential growth curve, insufficient handling of parameter uncertainty, and selective use of key data points. The critique concludes that the model lacks empirical validation and rigorous theoretical grounding, leading to overly optimistic and unconvincing conclusions—a cautionary tale in tech forecasting.