Earthquake Early Warning: The Speed-Accuracy Tradeoff in Magnitude Estimation

A major challenge in Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems is real-time estimation of earthquake magnitude. Magnitude determines the extent of shaking and who needs warning. Underestimation risks missed warnings, while overestimation leads to false alarms and erosion of public trust. The key challenge lies in balancing speed and accuracy; initial data is limited, but delaying alerts reduces warning time. Over the past three years, we've significantly improved magnitude estimation, reducing the median absolute error from 0.50 to 0.25. Our accuracy now rivals, and in some cases surpasses, established seismic networks.