Why Software Estimation Is Always Wrong (and How to Improve)

In Scrum teams, story points estimate effort, but software estimations are inherently flawed. They predict an unknown future, and project complexity, unclear requirements, and technical debt contribute to inaccuracies. Cognitive biases like Hofstadter's Law, Brook's Law, and the planning fallacy exacerbate the problem. The article explores improvements: tracking progress, adding buffers, using the COCOMO model, and an alternative from "NoEstimates": dropping story points, focusing on throughput and cycle times, and using visual tools like Kanban.