AI: Normal Tech, Not Superintelligence

This paper challenges the prevailing view of AI as a separate species, a highly autonomous, potentially superintelligent entity, arguing instead that AI is normal technology. The authors contend that AI's impact will be gradual, not sudden, based on an analysis of the different timescales of AI methods, applications, and adoption. They predict a future where humans and AI collaborate, with a significant portion of work focused on AI control and oversight. The paper also explores AI risks, such as accidents, arms races, misuse, and misalignment, advocating for mitigating these through reducing uncertainty and building system resilience rather than drastic policy interventions.