AI's Exponential Growth: Is AGI Near?

Research from METR shows AI capabilities are growing exponentially, with recent models mastering software engineering tasks in months that previously took hours or days. This fuels speculation about the imminent arrival of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). However, author Peter Wildeford points out METR's study focuses on specific software engineering tasks, neglecting the complexities of real-world problems and human learning. While AI excels in niche areas, it still struggles with many everyday tasks. He builds a model incorporating METR's data and uncertainties, predicting AGI could arrive in Q1 2030, but with significant uncertainty.