GATE: An Integrated Assessment Model of AI's Economic Impact

2025-03-30
GATE: An Integrated Assessment Model of AI's Economic Impact

Epoch AI presents GATE, an integrated assessment model exploring AI's economic impact. The model centers on an automation feedback loop: investment fuels computational power, leading to more capable AI systems automating tasks, boosting output, and further fueling AI development. An interactive playground lets users tweak parameters and observe model behavior under various scenarios. Predictions aren't Epoch AI's forecasts but conditional, based on assumptions, primarily useful for analyzing the qualitative dynamics of AI automation.

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AI

AI's Economic Impact: Automation of Labor, Not Just R&D?

2025-03-22
AI's Economic Impact: Automation of Labor, Not Just R&D?

A prevailing view posits that AI's primary economic impact will be through automating R&D. This article challenges that notion, arguing that R&D's economic value is overestimated, contributing far less to productivity growth than commonly believed. The authors contend that AI's economic value will stem primarily from widespread labor automation, leading to significant increases in productivity and output, not solely R&D advancements. While AI will eventually automate R&D, this will likely occur after broader automation, once AI possesses the capabilities to handle a wider array of tasks.

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AI

DeepSeek v3: Significant Improvements to the Transformer Architecture

2025-01-28
DeepSeek v3:  Significant Improvements to the Transformer Architecture

DeepSeek v3 achieves state-of-the-art benchmark performance with significantly less compute than comparable models. This is due to key architectural improvements: Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA) drastically reduces KV cache size without sacrificing model quality; improved Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) tackles routing collapse via auxiliary-loss-free load balancing and shared experts; and multi-token prediction boosts training efficiency and inference speed. These improvements demonstrate a deep understanding of the Transformer architecture and point the way forward for large language models.

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AI