Cheating at Settlers of Catan: Loaded Dice and P-values
2025-05-22
This article details an experiment to create loaded dice for Settlers of Catan, aiming to gain 5-15 extra resource cards per game. The author submerged one side of the dice to increase its weight, skewing the results. While statistical tests confirmed the dice bias, the author argues that the limited number of rolls in a typical game prevents opponents from scientifically proving cheating using standard p-value tests. The article discusses flaws in p-value analysis and highlights the use of more sophisticated methods like Bayes factors.
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