OpenAI: The Next Visa? Challenges and Risks on the Path to Monopoly

The article compares OpenAI to Visa, arguing its success isn't due to superior technology but to erecting barriers through exclusive deals, government contracts, and licensing restrictions to limit competition. OpenAI attempts to build these barriers by lobbying for government regulation, restricting investors from funding competitors, and securing long-term exclusive contracts with large clients. However, this strategy faces political and competitive headwinds. Similar to Visa's past challenges, the increasing ubiquity of LLM technology threatens the core API business. Competition from Elon Musk and potential relaxation of government regulation further complicate OpenAI's efforts to maintain its dominance. Ultimately, OpenAI's future hinges on whether it can build sufficiently high barriers to entry, both technologically and legally, to avoid repeating Visa's antitrust lawsuit.