H5N1 Avian Flu: A Deep Dive into the Pandemic Threat

This article delves into the potential pandemic threat posed by the H5N1 avian flu virus. The virus has already infected birds, cows, and mink, and has now been detected in pigs. While human cases remain relatively low, the author, drawing on epidemiological models and expert forecasts, assesses the probability of a pandemic in the next year (5%), and the potential mortality rate (ranging from comparable to a normal seasonal flu to resembling the 1918 Spanish flu). The article also discusses strategies for responding to a potential pandemic and highlights the economic impact on agriculture.