The Simon-Ehrlich Bet: A Century of Resource Scarcity?

In 1980, economist Julian Simon bet biologist Paul Ehrlich on the future price of five metals. Ehrlich predicted rising prices due to resource depletion from population growth, while Simon believed human innovation would prevent this. Simon won the 10-year bet. However, analyzing data from 1900 to the present, this article reveals that both Simon and Ehrlich would have won in different decades. The long-term trend, though, shows that prices haven't dramatically increased despite vastly increased production, supporting Simon's view that human ingenuity mitigates resource scarcity.