AI's Economic Impact: Automation of Labor, Not Just R&D?

A prevailing view posits that AI's primary economic impact will be through automating R&D. This article challenges that notion, arguing that R&D's economic value is overestimated, contributing far less to productivity growth than commonly believed. The authors contend that AI's economic value will stem primarily from widespread labor automation, leading to significant increases in productivity and output, not solely R&D advancements. While AI will eventually automate R&D, this will likely occur after broader automation, once AI possesses the capabilities to handle a wider array of tasks.