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India's Demographic Dividend: An AI-Driven Doomsday Scenario?

2025-03-28

India's economic aspirations have long rested on its demographic dividend – a young, burgeoning workforce. However, a new Bernstein analysis paints a concerning picture. Rapid AI advancements threaten to undermine this advantage, potentially creating a 'doomsday scenario'. The $350 billion services export sector, employing over 10 million, is at risk, with AI systems capable of performing tasks with higher precision and speed at a fraction of the cost of human labor. This threat extends to both high-end IT services and low-skill jobs. Despite leading in AI skills penetration, India's lack of domestic technological innovation and reliance on Western platforms leaves it vulnerable. The demographic dividend, once a promise of prosperity, could become a burden if sufficient quality jobs aren't created.

Mid-Range Smartphone Market Collapses

2024-12-31

The global smartphone market is fracturing into high-end and low-end segments, with the mid-range ($200-$600) segment's market share plummeting from 35% in 2021 to a projected 23% by 2027, according to Goldman Sachs. This sharp decline contrasts with its steady 35% share in 2021-22. Analysts attribute this to a lack of revolutionary technology upgrades and more conservative spending by the middle class amid macroeconomic challenges. Conversely, the premium segment (>$600) is booming, with its share projected to reach 32% by 2027. The entry-level segment ( <$200) shows remarkable resilience, maintaining a 41-45% market share, driven by 4G to 5G migrations and cost-conscious consumers. IDC analyst Navkendar Singh highlights the significant, yet underappreciated, growth of the used phone market. Overall market growth is sluggish, with Goldman Sachs projecting just 3%, 2%, and 1% growth in 2025-27, citing a lack of innovation and longer replacement cycles. India's smartphone shipments are projected to grow 3% in 2025, mirroring global growth, and capturing 13% of the global market share by 2025-27.