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Predicting Python's Stack Overflow Growth with the Bass Model: A Case Study

2025-03-18

The author presented a case study at an ODSC AI+ training session, using the Bass model to predict Python's growth trend on Stack Overflow. The model, fitted to historical data using Bayesian inference, predicted future growth and showed how the model adapts its predictions with new data. While not a perfect fit, the case study demonstrates the Bass model's value in forecasting technology trends and identifying potential inflection points in growth.

Kelly Can't Fail: A Zero-Variance Gambling Game

2024-12-19

This article presents a card game called "Next Card Bet," where the Kelly betting strategy, typically known for its high variance, surprisingly exhibits zero variance. By counting the remaining red and black cards, the player calculates the optimal bet fraction to maximize the expected logarithm of their stake. Python simulations demonstrate consistent returns of approximately 9.08 times the initial stake across 10,000 runs, showing no variance. The article explains this zero-variance property by showing the Kelly strategy's equivalence to a portfolio strategy that distributes bets across all possible card arrangements. This portfolio strategy guarantees a specific return, independent of the card order, thus explaining the zero variance of the Kelly strategy in this unique game.