Base-Rate Blindness: When Rare Events Surprise Us (and How AI Might Exploit It)
2025-01-26
This essay uses the astonishing feats of pickpocket Apollo Robbins to illustrate the concept of 'base-rate blindness'. The author argues that we underestimate the probability of rare events because we tend to ignore base rates – the prior probability of an event. Using personal anecdotes, like a surprising moose encounter in Colorado, and the academic world's underestimation of deception, the author shows how ignoring base rates can lead to dangerous consequences. The essay concludes with a provocative question: Are we base-rate blind to the potential risks of AI, distracted by the hype and pleas for regulation?