Bayesian Epistemology 101: Credences, Evidence, and Rationality
2025-02-03
This tutorial introduces Bayesian epistemology, focusing on its core norms: probabilism and the principle of conditionalization. Using Eddington's solar eclipse observation as a case study, it illustrates how Bayesian methods update belief in hypotheses. The tutorial then explores disagreements within Bayesianism regarding prior probabilities, coherence, and the scope of conditionalization, presenting foundational arguments like Dutch book arguments, accuracy-dominance arguments, and arguments from comparative probability. Finally, it addresses the idealization problem and the application of Bayesian methods in science.