Unsure Calculator: Taming Uncertainty in Everyday Calculations
2025-04-15
Filip Hracek introduces an uncertainty calculator that simplifies statistical reasoning by allowing input of numerical ranges (e.g., 4~6, representing a 95% confidence interval). Using a Monte Carlo method, the calculator handles basic arithmetic, powers, roots, and trigonometric functions, providing probability distributions and percentiles for a more comprehensive analysis. Illustrated with examples like a family's financial decision-making process and the Drake equation, the article showcases its practicality while acknowledging limitations such as slow computation and a rudimentary user interface. The calculator empowers users to make informed decisions despite inherent uncertainties.
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