Weather Forecasts: More Accurate Than You Think
The accuracy of weather forecasts has long been a subject of debate. However, thanks to advancements in computer technology, satellite data, and atmospheric science, the accuracy of weather forecasts has significantly improved over the past decades. For example, temperature forecast accuracy has improved by about one day per decade, and significant progress has also been made in rainfall, wind, and cyclone track forecasting. While there are doubts about the accuracy of long-range forecasts (e.g., seven-day forecasts), data shows that even nine-day forecasts are more accurate than climatological averages. However, a gap exists between public perception and actual accuracy, likely due to misinterpretations of forecast terminology and selective memory of extreme weather events.