Millions of Noisy Qubits Could Break RSA Encryption: Google's New Estimate
2025-05-24
Google Quantum AI's research suggests that a quantum computer with 1 million noisy qubits could theoretically break 2048-bit RSA encryption within a week. This is a 20-fold decrease from their 2019 estimate. While current quantum computers possess only hundreds to thousands of qubits, this finding underscores the urgency of migrating to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) standards to counter future large-scale quantum computing threats. Improvements in algorithms and error correction are key to this updated prediction, both significantly reducing the qubit count needed to break RSA. NIST has already released PQC standards, recommending deprecating vulnerable systems after 2030 and disallowing them after 2035.
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RSA encryption