Polymarket's Jesus Return Market: A Time Value of Money Play?
2025-05-29
A Polymarket prediction market on whether Jesus Christ will return in 2025 has traders wagering over $100,000. The 'yes' option currently sits at 3%, defying simple explanations like religious belief or market error. The author posits a more sophisticated strategy: bettors anticipate that later in the year, with other markets (e.g., US elections, papal succession) heating up, those betting 'no' will need cash for new bets and sell their positions at a premium, yielding profits for 'yes' bettors. This highlights the time value of money in financial markets, a strategy successfully employed in past elections. The market's existence itself reflects the differing expectations of Polymarket cash's future value.