The Two Child Problem: Intuition vs. Reality in Probability
2025-08-28
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A family has two children, and at least one is a girl. What's the probability both are girls? Intuition might suggest 1/2, but the correct answer is 1/3. This article uses probability trees and sample space to explain the counter-intuitive solution, highlighting the pitfalls of relying on intuition and neglecting problem details. It advocates for computer simulation to verify probability results, emphasizing the importance of precise problem definition, stating assumptions clearly, and avoiding reliance on 'common sense'.