Solving Complex Probability Problems with Model Counting
2025-02-14
This article presents a method for solving complex probability problems using propositional model counters. The author demonstrates, through a simple example, how to translate complex probabilistic relationships into Boolean logic formulas and use a model counter to compute the probability of the final event. This method can handle scenarios with complex causal chains and conditional probabilities, and has important applications in areas such as nuclear power plant safety assessment and quantitative trading. The article also provides an open-source tool, ganak, for performing model counting calculations.