Betting on the Pope: A 500-Year History of Papal Prediction Markets
2025-03-07
This article explores the complex, 500-year relationship between papal elections and gambling. From the 16th century Papal States, bets were placed on papal deaths and elections, even involving insider trading. Pope Gregory XIV issued a bull banning such practices, but with limited success. The ban was overturned in 1918. Today, prediction markets are resurfacing, allowing bets on the Pope's health and succession, sparking discussions about their societal impact, especially regarding information asymmetry and potential manipulation.