Predicting the Next Pope: A Network Analysis of Vatican Power
Bocconi University scholars used social network analysis to create the first map of the Vatican's cardinal network, aiming to predict the next Pope. The research, based on cardinals' official roles, consecration lines, and informal relationships, defined three key metrics: 'status,' 'information control,' and 'coalition-building capacity,' also incorporating age. The analysis reveals central figures within the network, with 'soft liberal' cardinals showing significant prominence. Geographically, Europe and South America remain influential, but Asia and Africa are increasingly strategic. This study offers a novel perspective on the complex power dynamics behind papal elections, showcasing the potential of social science methods in seemingly opaque religious contexts.