Global Temperatures Hit 1.5°C: Paris Agreement Target Breached Early?

June 2024 marked the first time in recorded history that global mean surface temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for 12 consecutive months. While the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change aims to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C, this refers to the long-term average. Researchers used climate model projections, combined with observations, to assess whether the long-term average temperature has already exceeded 1.5°C. Results suggest the Paris Agreement target may have been reached earlier than expected, potentially linked to the strong El Niño event. However, the models may be missing some drivers, such as the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption and the 2020 shipping regulations, which could bias the results. Future efforts should incorporate updated forcings more rapidly into operational modeling for more accurate predictions.
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